新iPhone一定会打破之前的销售纪录。除此之外，它也提醒我们，可能到了卖出苹果(Apple)股票的时候了。

　　Each new iPhone has sold as many units as all previous generations combined, Apple executives have joked internally according to recent trial testimony. And it isn’t crazy to believe exponential growth can continue for at least one more. Combine pent-up demand among existing iPhone users looking to upgrade, with the possibility that the new model will finally be compatible with the world’s largest carrier, China Mobile, and investors can expect explosive results.

　　据前不久的庭审证词显示，苹果高管在公司内部开玩笑时曾说，每款新iPhone的销量都是之前所有几代产品的销量之和。认为至少另一款iPhone的销量也将呈现出这种增长模式并非不切实际的想法。那些想让手里iPhone更新换代的用户具有潜在需求，再加上新机型可能最终将与全球最大无线运营商中国移动(China Mobile)的网络兼容，基于这两个因素，投资者可以期待新iPhone异常火爆的销售情况。

　　But the device setting those records is itself likely to be just an incremental upgrade over itspredecessor, the iPhone 4S. Indeed, if the latest version of Apple’s mobile operating system is any guide, the newest iPhone may not look that much different from smartphones Apple sold over three years ago. Granted, the screen is expected to be larger and the device thinner. But the actual user experience isn’t expected to be very different.

　　但创造这项纪录的新款iPhone本身却可能只是iPhone 4S的“增量升级”版。实际上，如果从苹果最新版移动操作系统来判断的话，那么新款iPhone可能与苹果过去三年来售出的智能手机并无太大差别。当然，预计屏幕会变大，机身会变薄，但实际用户体验可能不会有太大不同。

　　In one sense, that is good since a reason the iPhone is so popular is that ’it just works,’ notes analyst Neil Mawston of research firm Strategy Analytics. The hardware, software and Apple services like iTunes are tightly integrated and easy to use, making the device appealing to a huge swath of non-techie users. That is opposed to, say, devices running Google’s Android operating system, where the ability to customize can complicate the user experience.

　　市场研究公司Strategy Analytics的分析师莫斯顿(Neil Mawston)指出，从某种意义上说，这是件好事，因为iPhone如此受欢迎的原因之一是它很好用。iPhone的硬件、软件和苹果iTunes等服务融为一体，使用方便，因此大量并非热衷电子产品的用户也为之着迷。与之形成对比的是搭载谷歌(Google)安卓(Android)操作系统的手机，这些产品的定制功能可能会使用户体验复杂化。

　　In another sense, sticking to the iPhone’s traditional design is a problem, giving rivals a chance to jump ahead with new features. The Windows Phone operating system that Nokia uses has ’live tiles’ that display useful information or photos directly on the device’s home screen, not justdummy icons you have to touch to launch apps. The camera technology in Nokia’s latest device is also likely to be superior to Apple’s. And Nokia is showing its engineering prowess with, for instance, a touch screen that should work for users wearing winter gloves. Such subtleimprovements have typically been the hallmark of devices designed under Steve Jobs.

　　从另一个层面来看，iPhone在设计上坚持走传统路线也有问题，这会给竞争对手一个推出新功能并领先苹果的机会。诺基亚(Nokia)使用的Windows Phone操作系统有可直接在手机主屏上显示有用信息或图片的“活动瓷片”(live tiles)，而不仅仅是必须通过碰触才能启动应用程序的一个个图标。诺基亚最新手机采用的相机技术可能也比苹果先进。而且诺基亚目前正在展示其设计实力，如用户带着防寒手套也能用的触摸屏等。这类细微之处的改进历来都是乔布斯(Steve Jobs)生前在任时苹果产品所具有的特色。

　　Apple has other powerful advantages, including a huge ecosystem of apps. Android also has plenty, but Windows Phone lags far behind. Users that have downloaded lots of apps, not to mention other media from the iTunes store, may find themselves locked into using an iPhone. But if rivals surpass the iPhone in other crucial respects, it becomes harder for Apple to justify the price premium it charges wireless carriers to sell its devices.

　　此外，苹果也有其它强大的优势，包括巨大的应用生态系统。安卓也有很多应用软件，但Windows Phone在这方面则远远落后。那些下载了很多应用软件(更不必说从iTunes商店下载其它媒体内容)的用户可能会发现自己已离不开iPhone了。但如果竞争对手在其它关键领域超越iPhone，苹果向无线运营商证明其高价位属于合理范畴的难度就会增大。

　　Not long ago, Nokia and BlackBerry looked nearly as impregnable as Apple does today. Apple’sdominant ecosystem should prevent it ever suffering a similar decline. Yet the fact that it finds itself in a hit-driven business is perhaps good reason its shares trade for just 12 times earnings for the fiscal year ending September 2013 despite growing faster than any other company in the S&P 500 in 2011, ex-acquisitions.

　　不久以前，诺基亚和黑莓(BlackBerry)也曾与如今的苹果一样，有着看似几乎固若金汤的地位。苹果所主导的应用生态系统应该会防止它重蹈黑莓的覆辙。不过，苹果从事的是一个需要大量人气的行业，这也许就很好地解释了为何该公司根据截至2013年9月财年预期收益计算的市盈率仅为12倍，尽管苹果的增长速度超过2011年标普500指数(S&P 500)任何一家成分股公司（不包括发生收购的公司）。

　　Once upon a time, Apple revolutionized cellphones by turning them into hand-held computers. Resorting to evolutionary design changes would give rivals an opening.

　　曾几何时，苹果革命性地将手机转变为掌上电脑。而在设计方面采取“增量式改变”将让苹果的竞争对手有机可乘。

　　The next iPhone should again propel Apple’s stock and its sales. That may be the time for Apple shareholders to take their money off the table.

　　下一款iPhone应该会推动苹果股票及销售再上新台阶，或许这也是苹果股东揣好赚到的钱走路的时候了。