经济因素对国际收支的影响

来源:金融英语    发布时间:2013-01-20    金融英语辅导视频    评论

  Several economic forces may have an impact on the balance of payments of a specific nation. Among these economic factors are the inflation rate, real growth in gross national product (GNP), interest rates, and the spot exchange rate (or current rate for exchanges of currency that day). For example, inflation may lead to price level increases, which make domestic goods and services relatively too expensive for non domestic buyers. Exports will become less competitive and imports will become more attractive to domestic consumers. As exports decline and imports rise, the balance of trade sector in the balance of payments may become negative, and if this trade deficit is not balanced by capital inflows, the basic balance of the balance of payments may be in deficit. The basic balance is essentially the balance of all current and capital account items including merchandise exports and imports, travel and transportation, current investment income inflows and outflows, and private long-term investment inflows and outflows.
  有好几种经济力对某一国家的国际收支有影响。在这些经济因素中有通货膨胀率、国民生产总值的实际增长、利率、以及即期汇率(或当天货币的实时汇率)。例如,通货膨胀可能会导致价格水平的上升,使得非本国的购买者所购买的商品和劳务相对较贵。出口的竞争力会减弱,进口对本国消费者更有吸引力。随着出口的下降,进口的增加,国际收支平衡表中的贸易行业的差额可能成为负数,而且,如果这个贸易赤字不能由资本输入来平衡的话,那国际收支平衡表的基本差额就会出现逆差。基本差额主要是所有经常项目和资本项目,包括商品出口和进口、旅游运输,当期投资收入流进流出、以及私人长期投资流入和流出。
  High rates of growth in GNP tend to cause consumers to import more goods and services from abroad. Higher GNP pushes personal income up and if, as in the United States, consumers have a high propensity to import because of relatively higher incomes, imports may increase faster than exports, causing a dampening effect on the balance of payments. Lower GNP will usually result in lower imports of goods and services.
  国民生产总值(GNP)的高速增长易使消费者从国外进口更多的商品和劳务。较高的GNP会使个人的收入增加,如在美国,由于相对较高的收入,消费者有较高的进口倾向,这样,进口比出口增长得快,对国际收支产生抑制作用。较低的GNP通常导致商品和劳务进口的减少。
  Interest rates influence foreign investments in money and capital market instruments in a given country. If a country has high real interest rates relative to other countries, it will experience high inflows of funds for investment in financial instruments, as was the case in Germany in 1994. When real interest rates decline in a country, as in the United States during 1992-94, capital outflows occur and the basic balance deficit may increase. Expectations about the level of future interest rates may also have an impact on investment flows into and out of a country.
  利率影响对某一国家货币市场与资本市场工具的对外投资。如果一国相对于其他国家真实利率较高,该国将会经历较高的资金流入投资于金融工具,在1944年德国发生过这种情况。当一国真实利率下降,如在1992-1994年期间的美国,发生资本流出,基本项目收支逆差可能会增加。关于未来利率水平的预期也可能对投资从一国的流入和流出产生影响。
  Spot exchange rates influence the relative cost of imports vis-a-vis domestic goods and the relative cost of exports vis-a-vis foreign goods in importing countries. Relatively high exchange rates of the foreign currency compared to the domestic currency discourage imports and encourage exports, as in the case of the United States and Japan. The dollar has declined against the yen, making Japanese goods less attractive to U.S. consumers and U.S. goods and services more attractive to Japanese consumers. If the domestic currency appreciates against the foreign currency, export prices to foreigners will be less attractive and import prices to domestic citizens will be more attractive.
  即期汇率影响进口对国内商品的比较成本和进口国家出口对外国商品的比较成本。与本国货币相比,较高的外币汇率阻碍进口,鼓励出口,这种情况在美国和日本都发生过。美元对日元汇率下降,使得日本货对美国消费者的吸引力下降,美国的商品和劳务对日本消费者更有吸引力。如果本币对外币汇率下跌,出口商品价格对外国人的吸引力较低,对本国居民的进口商品价格有更大的吸引力。

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