Chinese equities drop to five-month low

　　Stocks in China fell sharply on Monday, leaving the main Shanghai index at a five-month low, after Citigroup lowered its growth forecast for the country because of the impact on exports of the eurozone debt crisis.

　　中国股市周一大幅下跌，基准的上证综指创5个月新低，此前花旗集团(Citigroup)基于欧元区债务危机对中国出口的影响，下调了中国增长预测。

　　The benchmark Shanghai Composite index fell 1.6 per cent to 2,224.11 after Citi said it expected China’s economy to expand at 7.8 per cent this year, compared to its previous estimate of 8.1 per cent, as the crisis in Europe and slowdown in growth in the US hit demand for its exports.

　　上证综指跌1.6%，至2224.11点，花旗表示，由于欧洲危机和美国经济增长放缓抑制了中国的出口需求，预计中国今年的经济增速将降至7.8%，而此前花旗的预期为8.1%。

　　Citi said its base scenario reflected only a mild recession in the eurozone, but added that if things worsened and it were to assume a Greek exit, the risk for China would be heightened.

　　花旗称，其基本假设只反映出欧元区出现温和衰退的情形，而如果形势恶化，它会假设希腊退出欧元区的情形，这样的话，中国的风险将进一步加大。

　　“An escalation of the European debt crisis may push China’s growth below 7 per cent in the absence of additional policy support,” said Shuang Ding, analyst.

　　分析师丁爽(Ding Shuang)指出，“如果没有额外的政策支持，欧债危机的加剧有可能使中国经济增速降至7%以下。”

　　“It is challenging to simulate the potential impact from a full-blown debt crisis in Europe, especially given its shockwave to the rest of the world and uncertainties about policy reactions.”

　　“预测欧债危机全面爆发的潜在影响并非易事，特别是考虑到它对世界其它地区所产生的冲击波，以及政策应对方面的不确定性。”

　　The easing in China’s economic growth has been most recently underlined by slowing activity in the country’s manufacturing sector, as measured by purchasing managers. In June, the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low of 48.1 from 48.4. A reading below 50 indicates economic contraction.

　　中国制造业活动的减速（以采购经理指数为衡量标准）成为中国经济增长放缓的最新迹象。汇丰(HSBC) 6月份制造业采购经理指数预览值(flash PMI)跌至48.1，这是7个月来的低点。指数低于50表明经济出现收缩。

　　China’s markets have reacted badly to the slowdown, and in June alone, the Shanghai index has fallen 6.2 per cent, hit also by disappointment over the response by policy makers. In spite of this month’s 25 basis-point rate cut, investors had expressed hopes of stimulus on a grander scale.

　　针对中国经济的放缓，中国股市反应剧烈。进入6月以来，上证综指已下跌6.2%。投资者对政策制定者的反应感到失望也是一个原因。尽管中国在本月宣布降息25个基点，但投资者曾希望看到更大规模的刺激举措。

　　Meanwhile, analysts at Crédit Agricole on Monday were downbeat on the outlook for broader Asian markets.

　　与此同时，法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole)的分析师周一对亚洲市场的整体前景也表达了悲观的看法。

　　“The region remains more exposed to the global economic cycle than other parts of the world as the share of exports in its gross domestic product is unusually high,” said Mitul Kotecha.

　　米图•科特查(Mitul Kotecha)表示，“这一地区对全球经济周期的风险敞口仍大于世界其它地方，因为出口在其GDP中所占比重高得不寻常。”

　　“The negative impact of the external environment is visible not just in trade but also in investment.”

　　科特查还说：“外部环境的负面影响不仅表现在贸易领域，也体现在投资领域。”

　　In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index lost 0.5 per cent to 18,897.45, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.7 per cent to 8,734.62 and South Korea’s Kospi Composite fell 1.2 per cent to 1,825.38. Overall, the broad FTSE Asia Pacific index shed 0.6 per cent to 219.21.

　　香港恒生指数(Hang Seng index)跌0.5%，至18897.45点；日本日经225(Nikkei 225)指数下挫0.7%，至8734.62点；韩国Kospi综合指数收于1825.38点，跌幅为1.2%。总体上，富时亚太指数(FTSE Asia Pacific index)昨日下跌0.6%，收报219.21点。

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